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Although nobody has been able to smuggle out a single screenshot
of the top-secret IBM Linux desktop OS—often referred to as Blue
Linux—I have friends who have seen it. I am assured that it not only
exists, but is being used by large numbers of IBMers. "They are going
through a process of eating their own dog food right now," I was told.
The
bad news is that the company may sit on the OS for up to two years
before actually releasing it. I saw a gossip item about this, and an
IBM insider confirmed the self-imposed delay to me. Can IBM be pushed
onto a faster track with this product? Someone had better do that.
I'd guess the OS has already been smuggled out into the real world.
It's just a matter of time before a copy turns up on some forum. I'm
certain the recent announcement by Microsoft that its Unix tools will
now be free has something to do with the IBM Linux Desktop OS. By
getting people dependent on these tools before IBM rolls out any sort
of Linux offering, Microsoft can find some unique ways to lock out or
marginalize the IBM product. Over the years, IBM has been humiliated
time and time again by failing to see Microsoft marketing maneuvers
coming, and there is no reason to suspect this will end anytime soon.
Why is a desktop version of Linux a good idea? Because the
software scene is slowly stagnating under the dominance of a very few
vendors who have top loaded their pricing to such an extent that users
are spending far more on software than hardware. Hardware prices have
dropped dramatically over the past 25 years, while software prices have
increased. Now that the public has been cowed into accepting various
software activation schemes, more and more money is being extracted
from hapless users at monopolistic prices. No tire kicking allowed any
more.
I was at Costco the other day, and Microsoft Windows XP upgrades
were $185. Why should an upgrade to the OS cost so much? The full
version, if you can find it, lists at $299. While Microsoft Windows XP
offers users an agreeable standard platform, when you can get a
barebones computer for less than the OS, spending this much money is
hard to rationalize.
Steve Ballmer is behind these prices. He's a high-price maven. When
Microsoft was developing OS/2, he was talking about these sorts of
prices. He has all sorts of rationales for such schemes, usually
revolving around development costs. The problem is that on the day of
release, the development costs are paid off. The rest is gravy.
Windows XP should sell for $29 not $299. This is why Linux has to be
put on the fast track. Users cannot pay never-ending forced tributes to
Microsoft as if it were the Roman Empire and we its slaves. Right now,
the Linux alternative needs some consolidation. To continue my History
Channel analogy, there needs to be a Genghis Khan of Linux uniting the
warring tribes into one unstoppable force. IBM has the potential to do
this.
IBM has tried everything to get Microsoft off the desktop. It
tried OS/2, and was outflanked by Microsoft. It attempted to create a
new platform based on a non-Intel chip. That went nowhere. It tried
going heavily into Java, which had zero effect on Microsoft. Now it's
going with Linux. If IBM were to roll out Blue Linux, numerous good
things would happen for Linux.
First, the OS would be taken more seriously and would also appear to
have a nexus of support. The move could stabilize application file
formats (if that is even possible). It would force Microsoft to compete
on both quality and price. While Microsoft enjoyed its shallow victory
over Netscape by giving away a browser, company officials have not been
pleased to see the same strategy employed against it—hence all the
anti-Linux rants from Microsoft and all the tacit support for
troublemaker SCO. Much of the complaining will fall on deaf ears if IBM
rolls out Blue Linux tomorrow.
That said, Microsoft is still smarter than IBM. No IBM strategy has
ever managed to even slow the Microsoft juggernaut. And now, by sitting
on the Linux Desktop OS, IBM is just giving Microsoft the time it needs
to figure out a strategy to submarine Big Blue once again. IBM has
never grasped the concept of momentum. The executives there should
watch some football games to understand it. I'm guessing that even if
the company had momentum, it wouldn't know what to do with it. This
appears to be more true than ever.
My prediction: Longhorn will be $350, and we'll just pay tribute once again while IBM wonders how Microsoft gets away with it.
Discuss this article in the forums.
More articles from John Dvorak:
• Getting It
• IBM's Blue Linux on the Desktop
• CES Photo Essay
• The Bill Gates Show
• Lost Photos
• more
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