October surprise
I thought I was going to bed, but then I read Kevin Drum and renewed my faith in humanity.
Towards the end of January, my friend Jon wrote the following (scroll down within that link):
Friday 1/23/2004
A CHILLING PROPHECY OF THINGS TO COME
I’m going to say this now, so you can look back on it in about a year and shudder at the power of my awesome foresight. Note that while I am making the prophecy now, I do not enjoy it in any way, shape, or form. Quite the opposite in fact.
Three things we’re going to have to get used to saying after the 2004 election:
- “I wish the Democratic party had gotten its shit together enough to even try to attempt to maybe challenge Bush just a little. That would’ve been nice.”
- “Does anyone else find it oddly coincidental that the military captured Osama ten weeks* before the election?”
[ . . . ]
* Or less.
Well, now we read that a lot of people agree with Jon’s second item: in one of those wildly inaccurate web polls, 56% of respondents believe that either Osama bin Laden has already been captured, or that he will be captured in time for the election, and that in any case we already know where he is and are just waiting.
The point isn’t the specific poll results. The point is that enough people believe in the possibility of this sort of stunt that it’s getting wide news coverage. In the article that Drum links to, the Associated Press reports that
The homeland security secretary is denying Osama bin Laden is already in U.S. custody.
When asked by reporters in Thailand if the al-Qaida leader is hemmed in — and would be caught or killed closer to November to boost President George W. Bush’s popularity — Tom Ridge didn’t answer the question directly.
Instead, he said “with the help” of American allies, the United States continues to pursue him. Ridge also said he has “no doubt within time” the United States will track bin Laden down and “bring him to justice.”
Earlier, Iranian state radio reported bin Laden had been captured and that Bush was withholding the announcement until the elections.
Meanwhile, Ridge responded to the terrorist attack in Spain — saying he believes a “sustained international effort” is necessary to defeat terrorism worldwide.
We can debate whether Ridge’s answer was an honest-to-goodness evasion of the Scott McClellan variety, but the point again is that this idea is getting some traction. The fact that it’s believable in this administration is a pretty awful sign.
I love Drum’s “dismissal”:
56% of them think that either Osama has already been captured or that the Bush administration will deliberately time his capture for close to the election.
This is ridiculous. I can’t stand the guy, but even I don’t think that. Let’s get a grip folks.
I mean, they’ll obviously do this right before the Republican convention, right? Great visuals, gives them something newsworthy to talk about, reminds everyone of 9/11 without seeming crass about it. It’s perfect.
But right before the election? Nah. That’s wingnut territory.