Podesta’s new inequality institute — November 6, 2013

Podesta’s new inequality institute

A think tank devoted to the study of inequality, headed by John Podesta (Clinton chief of staff, Obama advisor, and founder of the Center for American Progress), featuring Emmanuel Saez, Raj Chetty, and Brad DeLong? Wow. I am *fascinated* by where this will go.

(I have dropped off of Facebook and Twitter, so you might expect this blog to contain more in the way of “a link with a little commentary around it”.)

Inasmuch as universal health insurance is fundamentally about inequality, maybe here is the place to include a link to Jon Cohn’s great piece entitled “Obamacare Makes Men Pay for Maternity Care. Good!” The slam-dunk argument in the piece, and the moral principle that really ought to have universal appeal (but sadly doesn’t) is:

> __So you ended up XY instead of XX. Get over yourself.__ Even conservatives generally stipulate that insurance should protect people from the financial consequences of random events. But they seem not to recognize that being born a woman is a random event. Sorry, dudes, you had no control over that. Allowing insurers to discriminate based on gender means penalizing half the population, just because those folks ended up with one type of chromosome instead of another.

That’s liberalism in a nutshell: in whatever way works best, try to minimize the effects of random misfortune.

As I mentioned to a friend:

> While we’re on the topic, John McDonough’s [book: Inside National Health Reform] is a must-read. It’s the book I think of whenever anyone says that “no one has read all of the Affordable Care Act.” McDonough’s book is what to read if you in fact want to understand every page of the ACA. It contains one chapter for each title of the ACA, along with a really patient explanation of the politics and Congressional procedure that led to its being the way it is. I want to buy a hundred copies of it and hand them out at parties.

I’ve not yet reviewed it, because I am a terrible person. I’ll let the above stand, for now, as the stub of a review.

The government can spend money without spending money — October 24, 2013

The government can spend money without spending money

This is a good example of the perniciousness of tax expenditures. That is, the government nowadays spends lots of money just by lowering people’s tax bills; this is called a ‘tax expenditure’. The government tries to encourage homeownership, for instance, by lowering your monthly mortgage expense; it does this by allowing you to lower your tax bill every month by however much you pay for interest on your mortgage, to the tune of $106 billion per year. That’s an expense, just as it would be if the government had instead spent $100-plus-billion directly paying money for homes.

It’s even worse for health insurance: when your employer pays for your health insurance, it’s giving you income on which you don’t pay income taxes *or* Social Security. As Edward Kleinbard helpfully shared, the health-insurance tax expenditure costs Social Security $100 billion every year. That’s $100 billion that doesn’t show up in the usual accounting.

And yet:

> Catherine Frazier, a spokeswoman for the senator, confirmed the coverage, which Goldman said was worth at least $20,000 a year. The senator is on his wifes plan, which comes at no cost to the taxpayer and reflects a personal decision about what works best for their family, she said.

That $20,000-a-year plan is a benefit that the senator’s wife gets in lieu of salary, essentially. But it’s not taxed as salary. If she had been paid an extra $20,000, she would have had to pay taxes on it, and those taxes would likely have come to 30% or so of the $20,000, or around $6,000.

That a senator — or at least a member of a senator’s staff — is not aware that the government spends money when it fails to tax people for a benefit they receive is surprising. Though perhaps this gets down to a matter of ideology: the Republican Party has built a brand identity around opposing all taxes, so it probably doesn’t believe that foregone taxes are the same thing as money spent directly on services. This is unfortunate, because the effect is the same: people spend too much on health care.

And there’s an uglier side to paying for health care in this way: wealthier people get more help. That is, Senator Cruz’s wife is, in a very real sense, suckling at the public teat more than a poor person is. Suppose you’re in the lowest tax bracket, and that you’re lucky enough to have health insurance (unlike one in four people in your income bracket). Suppose, somehow, that you’re lucky enough to have a $20,000-a-year plan like Mrs. Cruz does. Well then U.S. taxpayers are subsidizing you to the tune of about $2,000. So Mrs. Cruz and her family draw about three times as much from the public trough as you do, even though she and Ted can likely afford it far more than you can.

Republicans have in the past objected to tax withholding, on the grounds that Americans don’t experience Federal sticker shock when they pay little by little throughout the year. If the goal is to make Americans know what they’re paying, and what they’re getting for it, then we should drop tax expenditures entirely and pay directly for what we get.

Food stamps — June 22, 2013

Food stamps

If we’re not going to do anything to alleviate the causes of poverty, the least we can do is help reduce the damage it causes. Among the least controversial (or so I thought) things we could do is provide food to poor people. About one in every ten households has received food stamps, and they average about $120 per month for food. That’s The total SNAP budget is about $81 billion. To put that in perspective, it looks like we’re budgeted to spend $85.6 billion on Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan this year. Yet the recently-rejected House farm bill included a $2-billion-a-year *cut* to SNAP. So apparently we owe it to soldiers to stay the course, even when the course was disastrously conceived and executed, but we owe the poor nothing even when their poverty is our fault (e.g., your skin color consigned you to an officially inferior station with limited voting rights until at least the 1960s; your father ended up in jail as part of the country’s catastrophic war on drugs; the Federal Reserve cares a lot about inflation but not so much about unemployment).

I’m reasonably happy that House Democrats opposed these cuts to SNAP; I’d be happier if anyone’s imagination extended to *expanding* the program. But no; the Senate, which *has* passed a SNAP bill, cuts the program by $3.9 billion. The best we can come up with is to cut this program — just like the best we can come up with when it comes to Social Security is to cut benefits by using an alternate measure of inflation, even though Social Security pays retirees only about $15,000 a year, and even though Social Security is the *sole* source of income for one in five people over 65.

I don’t know what we’ve lost: the imagination that allows us to think our society can achieve great things, our feelings of brotherhood toward our fellow-men, or our ability to experience outrage. Whatever it is, it is sad as hell.

We continue to act like a poor country — like we’re going broke and can’t afford to guarantee a minimally good life for our brothers and sisters. I continue to lament this; the more I think about it, the more I know that I need to write a book about it. We’re not poor. We’re the most prosperous nation that the world has ever known. We’ve just chosen to redirect much of the massive increase in real incomes since the 1960s into the wrong things. What’s even more worrisome than that, however, is that we’ve made the mistake of believing that our “poverty” is baked in, rather than the result of an explicit choice. But it was and is a choice. It’s a choice that we make anew every single day, when we decide that we don’t have a society filled with people who owe something to each other, and instead decide that we’re each on our own fending for ourselves.

I see this in myself, and have to fight it constantly. “Save until it hurts,” I tell myself, “because when the time comes, no one is going to be there for you.” Or I consider how much I’ll have to save for my notional future children, in the expectation that well-funded public universities won’t be there to help them.

So that’s the plan on my end: write up where we came from and how we ended up at this particular sordid state, make it clear to our society that our “poverty” *is* a choice, and try to recreate the social imagination that we so desperately need.

“The poor” — October 26, 2012

“The poor”

I had a realization today: when we talk about ‘the poor’, we have a labeling problem. I think people are inclined, when they envision ‘the poor’, to envision a permanent underclass — the perennially helpless. The mental picture that a lot of people have is of people who were born to poor parents, will be poor and uneducated throughout their lives, and will raise children who are stuck in the same class as well for all their lives.

There may be some of that. Who knows, it may be the case that most of those who fall on hard times will spend their entire lives there. But the point is that, by envisioning the poor this way, we envision them as ‘the other’. And by envisioning them as the other, we don’t picture ourselves as people who could be poor by a stroke of fortune tomorrow. Consequently, we imagine a program like Medicaid as a program for ‘the poor’, rather than as a program that we ourselves could benefit from. We envision food stamps as something for other people. That makes it hard for us to defend food stamps as a thing *for all of us*. If the society is lucky, most of us will be altruistic enough to defend social programs for others, but I wouldn’t count on it.

Seems to me that if we really want to sell these things, we need to convince Americans that any of us could fall into the social safety net at any time. That turns Medicaid into a middle-class benefit, which the middle class should defend purely out of self-interest. (1 in 7 Americans is on food stamps. Medicaid and CHIP provide coverage to 1 in 5 Americans. There is no state, among those from which records are available, in which Medicaid pays for less than 1 in 4 births. Etc.)

As it happens, right now I’m reading a book (Frank J. Thompson’s [book: Medicaid Politics: Federalism, Policy Durability, and Health Reform]) that tries to understand whether Medicaid has the political clout to survive; and if it does, why it does. The maxim has always been that “a program for the poor becomes a poor program”; so why does Medicaid, the classic program for the poor, not become a poor program? Why does it seem to be thriving?

I recall some Jacob Hacker data showing that income variability is quite high: the probability that your income will drop by half next year is rather high; you might need that safety net after all.

Then of course there are the second-order effects of making middle-class life more predictable: if your future is more predictable, you can do more planning and long-range thinking. You can choose to stay in the community you want to live in, knowing that a layoff won’t force you to pack up and find work elsewhere. If you know your children will have health insurance regardless of whether you’re employed, you can go off and start a small business — you can take the sort of risks that society is supposed to encourage. Now that you and your neighbors are more stable, the guy running the bakery down the street knows that he can rely on a steadier stream of business; so he can plan further ahead in *his* future; and so forth. The benefits of a middle-class safety net radiate out far beyond the immediate beneficiary.

More on all of this soon. Hopefully more data, in particular.

Affordable Care Act silence is deafening — July 1, 2012

Affordable Care Act silence is deafening

Does it seem to anyone else like Democrats — including the President — passed the Affordable Care Act and then promptly stopped talking about it altogether? If my read on the situation is right, that’s because they perceived the law polls very poorly. But

1. If you’re going to lose an election, lose with your back straight. Either voters dislike your voting for the law or they don’t. If they don’t care how you voted, there’s no need for you to be silent about it. On the other hand, if they dislike it, and you believed in the law when you passed it, then stand up for it. You didn’t run for office just to win re-election; presumably you ran because you wanted to achieve something positive, and you thought the law was positive. If the voters do care and you didn’t believe in it when it was passed, your opponent is still going to hound you for your vote when you run for re-election. So what’s the point in hiding from it?

2. Whether something polls well or poorly isn’t an objective fact ‘out there’ in the universe; whether it polls well depends a lot on whether people whom Americans like — such as President Obama — are out there selling it. Which they aren’t.

3. The ACA as such polls poorly, because it’s been demonized as ‘Obamacare’. But some of the individual provisions — no discrimination against pre-existing conditions, lengthened coverage under one’s parents’ health insurance — poll well. In many cases I think it’s just that people don’t know what’s in Obamacare. In other cases, like the mandate, people genuinely seem to hate it. That seems like a failure of education: people need to understand that there are only a few ways to make health coverage universal without the market unraveling. Democrats have been *terrible* about selling the mandate.

4. Do you care about ensuring that everyone has health insurance, or don’t you? We really need to make clear that that’s what this comes down to: we believe in universal coverage; they don’t. If you believe in universal coverage, something like a mandate is unavoidable. (Expanding Medicare to everyone would have been another option, but insurers never would have stood for it.) Lately Republicans seem to be facing up to this, and at least admitting that they don’t care about universal coverage. If nothing else, that has the virtue of consistency. But it’s morally repugnant.

How much is the employer health-insurance subsidy worth? (Or, I regurgitate Austin Frakt.) — July 9, 2011

How much is the employer health-insurance subsidy worth? (Or, I regurgitate Austin Frakt.)

I come back to Austin Frakt’s post calculating how much the Federal subsidy for health insurance is worth every few months, and I think I have to re-study it every time. It’s a hugely important post.

Probably a lot of others don’t read wonky health-insurance blogs quite as obsessively as I do, so the background is like so: your employer (if you’re lucky enough to have an employer that supplies health insurance) doesn’t pay taxes on the health-insurance fringe benefit. When they pay you a dollar in wages, they have to pay their part of Medicare and Social Security taxes. Once they’ve paid their taxes and passed your wages on to you, you have to pay taxes on them. Health insurance isn’t like that: your employer doesn’t pay taxes on health benefits, and neither do you. So one dollar in health insurance is worth more than one dollar in wages to you and to your employer.

Turns out that the subsidy is really distorting. Professor Frakt’s exercise may already be clear to everyone, but I don’t think it was clear to me for a while. So in bullet form, trying to make it as clear as possible (to myself as much as to everyone else) it’s like so:

  • For every dollar an employer pays out in wages, a certain fraction of that dollar goes to taxes (employer pays Medicare and Social Security). Call that fraction T.
  • So for every dollar in wages that the employee receives, the employer pays $(1+T).
  • Flip that around: for every dollar in wages that the employer pays, the employee receives $1/(1+T).
  • Now the employee has his dollar in wages. Of that, a certain fraction goes to taxes (Medicare, Social Security, federal, state). Call that tax fraction E.
  • So the employee is left with $(1-E) of his dollar.
  • But his dollar was already $1/(1+T) of what the employer spent.
  • So of every dollar the employer spends on wages, what ends up in the employee’s pocket is $(1-E)/(1+T). Call this F, for “Final amount in the employee’s pocket.”
  • This means that $(1-F) goes to taxes, for every dollar the employer spends on wages.
  • Put another way: a dollar spent on health insurance, which no one pays taxes on, loses the government $(1-F). 1-F is called the “tax price.” Professor Frakt links here to a paper by the omnipresent Jon Gruber, an MIT professor who was central to building Massachusetts’ universal-coverage system, and who advised President Obama on the Affordable Care Act. The paper — “The Impact of the Tax System on Health Insurance Coverage” — sounds interesting.

To put some flesh on the numbers:

  • when the employer pays you a dollar (in wages, but not in health insurance), it spends 6.2 cents on Social Security and 1.45 cents on Medicare Part A. So T = .062 + .0145 = 0.0765.
  • you pay Social Security and Medicare Part A (same percentages as your employer), plus your Federal marginal tax rate (I’m in the 28% bracket), plus your state marginal rate (Massachusetts’ is 5.3%). So my marginal rate is 40.95%, whence E = .4095.
  • So when my employer spends a dollar on health insurance rather than on wages, the government loses 45 cents that it would have picked up in taxes. (Professor Frakt ends up with 37 cents using more-conservative assumptions, namely that the state tax rate is 5% and that my Federal marginal rate is 20%.)

This distorts the labor market — encouraging employers to buy more-expensive health-insurance plans — and costs the government money that it could be spending on other valuable things.

And it’s regressive: if you’re in the top (35%) bracket, you’re getting more of a benefit from the health-insurance subsidy than is someone in the 28% bracket. Same goes for the mortgage-interest deduction, and it may be even worse there: not only do higher-income people get more off their taxes for every dollar they spend on mortgage interest than do lower-income people, but the more you spend on a house, the more you can take off your taxes. Assuming Bill Gates’s house cost the $97 million that some random web page says it did, that he put 20% down, and that he financed it with a 2%, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, he’ll be able to use the mortgage-interest deduction to avoid paying taxes on $26,345,019.10 in income over the life of the mortgage. Assuming he’s in the 35% bracket, that’s $9,220,756.69 that the mortgage-interest deduction saved him. Whereas if you’re in the 28% bracket and finance a $350,000 home the same way, you’ll save $33,270.77 over those same 30 years.

These “tax expenditures” cost the government money in the same way that buying a bomber or building a road costs it money. But tax expenditures haven’t, until recently, appeared on the radar in the same way that a $500 toilet seat does. We may well be paying for Bill Gates’ $500 toilet seat, but it hasn’t had the same visceral effect.

Paul Ryan and “libertarianism by default” — May 22, 2011

Paul Ryan and “libertarianism by default”

I’ve feared for a while that my generation would become libertarians by default: the social safety net has been so thoroughly worn down that there’s little social contract left; I fear that people expect Medicare and Social Security to be gone by the time they retire. If that’s what people expect, then they stop lobbying to strengthen Social Security and just look out for #1. Republicans, meanwhile, have never stopped trying to destroy Social Security. Current retirees will never let Social Security end, but maybe my generation will. My parents’ generation expects Social Security to be there, and many of them have pensions. My generation might well expect Social Security to die, and we all have very weak 401(k)s instead of reliable pensions. So we may not know what to lobby for, because we’re not used to having a social safety net to fall back on. We may not know what we’re missing until it’s gone. Hence libertarianism by default: the libertarianism of apathy.

This is all just speculation about what might happen, of course. This generation might turn out to be just as passionate about liberal causes as was FDR’s generation — particularly after watching several bubbles and crashes over just the last decade. Certainly *I* think that this calls out, more than ever, for more active management in the economy, and particularly for more protection against the business cycle. I think a lot of people my age think the same way. Now if only our elected representatives would stop merely trying to prevent the death of Social Security, and instead take the fight to the Republicans.

These thoughts have all been bubbling for a while. They were brought to a boil by a terrific short piece in the New Republic (via Matt Yglesias). Well worth your time.

An open letter about strengthening the social-safety net, to my Congressional representative, Mike Capuano — April 4, 2011

An open letter about strengthening the social-safety net, to my Congressional representative, Mike Capuano

(Sidebar bit of context: I voted for Mike to run against Scott Brown for the senate race when Ted Kennedy died. Had Mike won the Democratic primary rather than Martha Coakley, I’m convinced that the Commonwealth’s Senate delegation would still be 100% Democratic.)

Dear Congressman Capuano,

I see that Rep. Ryan is proposing to privatize Medicare. And I see that the GOP is trying to scare everyone into thinking that Social Security’s funding problems can only be addressed by cutting benefits for the middle class, even though the CBO says otherwise.

I have two questions about this. __First__, can you help me understand why the Democratic Party hasn’t taken hold of the narrative here? There’s a lot in the news about Social Security’s peril, but nothing about how the whole problem could be solved by eliminating the payroll-tax cap.

__Second__, and maybe more importantly: why can’t the Democrats take the fight to the Republicans? We shouldn’t be the party of fighting rearguard actions to prevent the dismantling of the social safety net; unfortunately, that’s most of what people have known us for over the last decade, at least, with the notable and terrific exception of the Affordable Care Act. (Here’s hoping it gets implemented.) Under President Bush, we were known as the party that fought successfully against privatizing Social Security. I’m glad we pulled that off, but why couldn’t we have taken the fight to them? Not only will Social Security not be dismantled, but it will be *strengthened*, so that it provides the sort of retirement that we need, and functions as a real pension for those of modest to average means? In the wake of Enron, everyone was aware — or could have been made aware through the use of that one vivid example — that 401(k)s are no substitute for a real defined-benefit retirement plan.

As for Medicare and Medicaid: we have all the facts on our side; why can’t we fight? Why can’t we bring Medicare to everyone, not just the aged (and some exceptions like those with end-stage renal disease)? Why can’t we show the American people that Medicare’s rate of cost growth is lower than that of private health care? Why must we settle for *not letting the Republicans destroy it?*

A robust Democratic party — the party I want to belong to — would fight these fights, not only because they’re just, but also because we have the facts on our side. And the story doesn’t seem hard to sell. During the fight over the Affordable Care Act, many were concerned that the elderly would fight the bill because they thought it would mean gutting their Medicare. So wouldn’t the simplest bill, with the most easily understood PR, have been one that simply extended Medicare to those under 65? This bill would have had the virtue of being *the best* bill, as well.

To some extent I know I’m preaching to the choir, both because you’re a very progressive representative and because the Senate is the problem more than the House; the Senate seems to be where progressive legislation goes to die. If the Senate is the problem, and the public decisively wants a stronger safety net (and I’d be *shocked* if, when asked whether Medicare ought to be extended to all Americans regardless of age or income, Americans said no), I want the Democrats out there every day saying that the Senate is standing in the way of the people’s will. I want “procedural reform” on everyone’s lips.

In short, I want some fight in my party. And unless this is a case of media misrepresentation, I just don’t see that fight.

Having now laid out a largely negative case, I need to explain that beneath it all is a very positive question: what do I, as a resident of the nation’s most reliably blue state, do to fight for a Democratic party that’s worth fighting for?

With respect,
Steve Laniel

There is no Social Security crisis — March 18, 2011

There is no Social Security crisis

Repeat after me: there is no Social Security crisis. Ladies and gentlemen, let’s turn the microphone over to the Congressional Budget Office from July of last year:

CBO estimates the 75 year actuarial balance to be -0.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP); that is, under current law, the resources dedicated to financing the program over the next 75 years fall short of the benefits that will be owed to beneficiaries by about 0.6 percent of GDP. That figure is the amount by which the Social Security payroll tax would have to be raised or scheduled benefits reduced for the systems revenues to be sufficient to cover scheduled benefits. In other words, to bring the program into actuarial balance over the 75 years, payroll taxes would have to be increased immediately by 0.6 percent of GDP and kept at that higher rate, or scheduled benefits would have to be reduced by an equivalent amount, or some combination of those changes and others would have to be implemented.

Once the temporary Social Security tax reduction goes away, we’ll be back to 7.65% for OASDI + Medicare Part A. So what the CBO is telling us is that we could increase the tax from 7.65% to 8.25% immediately and solve the problem for the next 75 years.

CBO also lays out some policy options, and how much of the 0.6%-of-GDP gap each of them would close. One option is to eliminate the cap on the Social Security payroll tax, so that income above $106,800 would also pay the 6.2% OASDI tax. If we did this, the 0.6% gap would close by … wait for it … 0.6%. (See the chart on page xi.)

Now then. You typically hear it said that people will have to work longer in order to close the gap. “Working longer” means “delaying when people can receive Social Security retirement benefits,” which in turn (because people have finite lives) means “decreasing the total amount that people will receive in retirement benefits over their lives.” That’s the whole point: make them work longer so that Social Security pays out less.

Since Social Security is the major source of income for a large fraction of Americans (I’ll find a citation for that; I just saw it cited the other day), and it’s not the major source of income for wealthy people, “increasing the retirement age” is another way of saying “decreasing benefits for the poor and middle-income Americans.” The CBO says that doing this would close about half the gap. (See the same chart on page xi.)

On the other side, we could tax higher-income earners. Taxing income above $107,000 would affect approximately the top 13% of tax returns, and would solve the entire Social Security “problem” in one fell swoop.

So, to review, two available options are

  • increase the retirement age, which, virtually by definition, is equivalent to cutting benefits for poor and middle-income earners, and would solve half the problem.

  • remove the cap on Social Security taxes, which would affect the top 13% of tax returns and solve the entire problem.

Please keep this in mind whenever you hear some Very Serious Person intone that we’ll all need to tighten our belts and work longer to keep Social Security afloat.

To all those who insist on tarring every Jon Stewart fan with the same brush — November 6, 2010

To all those who insist on tarring every Jon Stewart fan with the same brush

…namely the “it’s all a bunch of ironic hipsters whose lives are so comfortable that they don’t feel any real commitment to anything” brush, I ask: isn’t it just possible that much of Stewart’s audience voted for Barack Obama expressly because they feel sadness for those who can’t afford health insurance, and want to help those less fortunate than themselves? For instance, maybe, just maybe, the young liberals in the audience wanted universal health care for entirely non-ironic reasons?

I resist the temptation to close with an unironic fuck-you.