The high cost of free parking — September 2, 2010

The high cost of free parking

The Cato Institute has been debating, bizarrely, with Donald Shoup over his book [book: The High Cost of Free Parking]. It’s bizarre because Cato is ostensibly libertarian, yet they’re trying to argue that government-mandated parking (in zoning laws and so forth) is okay because, essentially, the market would have arrived at the same solution on its own. They have no reason to think that.

The discussion started when Tyler Cowen, an economist at George Mason and contributor to the Marginal Revolution blog, took to the [newspaper: New York Times] to channel Stroup’s [book: High Cost of Free Parking]. Randal O’Toole came back with a bizarrely non-libertarian post that purports to be libertarian. (Might I suggest that the Cossacks work for the Czar?)

Shoup came back yesterday with what can only be described as an epic takedown. It is well worth your time. Short version: it helps to have the faintest idea what “evidence” means before you try arguing with someone who wrote a 700-page book on parking regulations. Shoup’s rejoinder is wonderfully well-written, too.

Books I own that I haven’t read —

Books I own that I haven’t read

The other day I went through one of my periodic bouts of OCD, wherein I grab all the books off my shelves that I’ve not yet read. Turns out there are 100 books on that list; they’re below. It occurred to me that I went through the same exercise back in the day; I looked and found that indeed, I made such a list in 2006. There were 27 books on the list at that time. Of those, I’ve read five. I’ve decided that I’ll never read nine of them. That means I’ve added … uh … 87 books to the list. Yikes. This is not working out well. Here’s what the new, shameful pile looks like:

Five stacks of books, each probably two 20 inches high

The list of books in those piles is below the fold.

Then there’s the to-read list, which contains 540 books at the moment and which overlaps quite a bit with the list below. Oh, and I have a shelf full of math books that I will, in truth, probably never read (e.g., Munkres’s [book: Topology]). Not a hopeful scene at all.

I also have three books checked out of the library at the moment:

* [book: Probability with Martingales], on the recommendation of a Twitter follower
* [book: Google’s PageRank and Beyond], just to refresh my memory
* Joshua Ferris’s novel [book: The Unnamed], on Adam Kessel‘s recommendation.

Finally, I’m in queue for four books at the library:

* [book: Were You Born on the Wrong Continent?], by Tom Geoghegan (author of the heartbreaking and awe-inspiring [book: Which Side Are You On?: Trying To Be For Labor When It’s Flat On Its Back], and lamentably defeated candidate to replace Rahm Emanuel as the Congressman from Illinois’ fifth district)
* Rosecrans Baldwin’s novel [book: You Lost Me There]
* [book: Diary of a Very Bad Year], by the possibly-fake hedge-fund manager profiled on [mag: n+1] (favorably reviewed by Ezra Klein)
* Karl Polanyi’s [book: The Great Transformation] (which I could have sworn that Cosma Shalizi reviewed somewhere, but apparently not)

Objectively speaking, this collection of books bespeaks almost pathological packratitude. So now I have my unread-but-owned book stack out in the open, sitting guiltily on the floor in front of my bookshelves. I’d like to say that I won’t buy another book until I’ve polished all of those off. A boy can dream about the end of his own pathologies.

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Upon hearing that a four-story New York City Barnes & Noble is closing — August 31, 2010

Upon hearing that a four-story New York City Barnes & Noble is closing

(…as reported in the [newspaper: New York Times]), it is perhaps appropriate to include a graphic which, while it doesn’t prove anything, is *suggestive*:

Stock prices of AMZN (Amazon), BGP (Borders), and BKS (Barnes and Noble) from late 2005 to now. B and N has fallen about 58.92% in that time; Borders has fallen 95.1%; Amazon has risen 198.21%

“BGP” here is Borders, “AMZN” is of course Amazon, and “BKS” is Barnes & Noble.

Borders’ market cap — the total value of its stock — is $67.1 million. Barnes & Noble’s is $838.49 million. Amazon’s is $55.44 *billion*. Granted, Amazon is not just a bookstore. But these numbers aren’t, I think, all that misleading.

While we’re on the topic of Amazon, it occurred to me the other day: there’s essentially nothing that makes Wal-Mart distasteful while making Amazon desirable. Both try to squeeze their suppliers as much as possible to get the cheapest prices for their customers. Both use their size as a weapon to get those low prices from their suppliers. Both are killing off neighborhood stores; it just happens that Wal-Mart does it rather more obviously than Amazon. Amazon would probably have labor troubles as well, if it had as many low-paid employees as Wal-Mart does.

And yet I buy from Amazon sometimes [1], while I wouldn’t be caught dead inside a Wal-Mart. This is partly an unconscious class thing: Wal-Mart is associated, among folks in my particular urban milieu (a friend calls us “SWPLs”, from Stuff White People Like), with trashy suburbs and poorer folks. Until recently, it hadn’t consciously occurred to me that that might be the issue, but I think it is.

That said, in both Amazon’s and Wal-Mart’s case we shouldn’t romanticize what came before. Amazon didn’t replace a nation of Harvard Book Stores; it replaced a nation of Barnes & Nobles and Borderses. B&N and Borders may have begun the trend of eliminating local bookstores [2], but they also eliminated Waldenbooks. Waldenbooks, in turn, had been a K-Mart property since 1984 (according to the Wikipedia). Likewise, Wal-Mart — at least in my limited experience — didn’t replace a nation of shopkeepers; it replaced a nation of K-Marts.

I have no real point here. I’d recommend that you buy books where you enjoy buying books. Everyone’s going to have his own tradeoff between price and localness. My cutoff is around $20: if the same book is $20 cheaper on Amazon, I’m likely to buy it there. I hope there comes a point when my income is such that I don’t pay attention to differences of that magnitude, but I’m not there yet.

Harvard Book Store facade

Around here, the Harvard Book Store is such an institution, and adds such color to the area, that its disappearance would be an incalculable loss. It’s hard to imagine Harvard Square without that beautiful black-and-gold façade; I hope I never have to imagine it.

A friend suggested a couple years ago that all the damage had been done: the market-share division between Amazon and the rest of the world was about where it was going to settle. I was hopeful then. I’m less hopeful now. Electronic books look like a real killer; Amazon made waves recently when it noted that it sells more electronic books than it does hardcovers (*new* hardcovers, presumably). That market is only going to grow, and there’s no reason to think that the Harvard Book Stores of the world can compete there.

So I’m worried. All I can do is continue to buy local when possible, and hope for the best. I’m lucky to live in a town where a Harvard Book Store is even possible; most places aren’t nearly so lucky. And even the local-bookstore market has thinned dramatically around here in recent years. When Wordsworth, the Harvard Square institution, closed six years ago, its founder bitterly noted:

> “In the 1980s … on Memorial Drive, you’d see people coming out of dorms and heading toward Harvard Square. In the 1990s, what you’d see in the windows of dorms was a Doppler effect of blue lights from computer screens, and you knew students were at their computer, hitting a key to order from Amazon.com. The only reason they’d come out of their dorms was to have Chinese food and mate.”

[1] — I normally get my books from the library. If I buy new books, I buy them from the Harvard Book Store just up the street. If I buy used books, I buy them off Amazon when they’re significantly cheaper than the Harvard Book Store’s copies. Also, Amazon’s used-book selection is just much better than any local store’s would be, particularly if I’m looking for obscure academic texts; HBS doesn’t carry those at all.

[2] — Those of us who grew up near Burlington, Vermont remember Chasman & Bem. In retrospect, it was a beautiful bookstore. At the time, I remember the service being terrible. If it were still around, and I still lived in Vermont, I’d be shopping there rather than at the Borders or Barnes & Noble up the street. It’s too late for that, though: Barnes & Noble moving in a couple miles up the street killed them off.

I visited my brother in Boston back in probably 1993 or 1994 and hit up a gorgeous bookstore with him in Faneuil Hall (the last time I actually hung out in Faneuil). I believe that was Waterstone’s, part of a British bookstore chain. It, too, is gone.

Karen Armstrong, The Case For God — August 29, 2010

Karen Armstrong, The Case For God

Cover of The Case For God: title, author, etc. in sans-serif font, emerald-green background, big stack of books from famous philosophers and theologians. Running from bottom to top, the books are: Aquinas's condensed Summa, Plato's complete works, New Testament, Talmud, Basic Works of Aristotle, Augustine's Confessions, 'On The Kabbalah and Its Symbolism', Civilization and Its Discontents, Origin Of Species, Koran

It is a very important and very modern error, says Karen Armstrong, to read the Bible as though it contained factual content. The Greeks knew that there were two kinds of knowledge, [foreign: logos] that concerns itself with facts, and [foreign: mythos] that concerns itself with things like love and courage and coping with hardship; the Greeks never confused these domains. Moving briskly through religious and philosophical history, Armstrong argues that no one confused these domains until the Scientific Revolution: Plato, Aristotle, Jesus, Augustine, Aquinas, Luther, Descartes, Pascal, and on and on — they all realized that there was a domain to which science would never properly have access. This separation seems to have disappeared in our modern scientific era, when all ideas are thought to be amenable to scientific analysis.

They also all realized that there was a realm of the literally unspeakable, which one could only reach through long study and ritual. The ritual was important: merely reading texts wouldn’t get you there. And the texts — for instance, the Bible and the Torah — don’t just stand on their own; they’re meant to be read along with a teacher. And they’re meant to be read metaphorically rather than literally ([foreign: logos] versus [foreign: mythos] again).

The reader will naturally wonder: if the Bible is meant to be read metaphorically, does that mean that Jesus did not literally perform the miracles and did not literally ascend to Heaven? She says explicitly that few people ever took the miracles literally, and in any case that they don’t matter to faith. Jesus, along with some other famous holy men, was probably very good at healing certain psychosomatic disorders, but she seems to argue that walking on the water and so forth are meant to be understood metaphorically.

What, then, of things like the Nicene Creed, which asserts that Christ “suffered, and … ascended into heaven”? Did he literally ascend into heaven, or metaphorically? Armstrong asserts that the ignorant Emperor Constantine forced this creed on Christians, who then returned to their homes and pretty much continued as they had, treating the whole thing as a metaphor. If not in the specifics, then in the general approach, Armstrong here meshes with what I know of Aquinas: when we say that God is a rock, we don’t literally mean that it’s a rock; we’re supposed to be able to identify what’s metaphor and what’s fact in the Bible.

Armstrong essentially contends that all religions, going as far back as Buddhism and Hinduism, have believed in an ineffable realm that’s only accessible through prayer and worship and charity. She contends that Christianity, Judaism, and Islam have all gone after the same basic peaceful approach to humanity. For example (p. 79):

> In a famous Talmudic story, it was said that Hillel had formulated a Jewish version of Confucius’s Golden rule. One day, a pagan had approached Hillel and promised to convert to Judaism if Hillel could teach him the entire Torah standing on one leg. Hillel replied: “What is hateful to yourself, do not to your fellow man. That is the whole of the Torah and the remainder is but commentary. Go learn it.”

Here we have a line connecting Confucius and Judaism. Armstrong connects Judaism and Christianity, and Christianity and Islam, in the same way. They’re all essentially teaching us to be good to our neighbors, and all giving us a set of rituals to tap into the ineffable.

Armstrong’s writing is so clear, and her message of universal love so captivating, that you have to step out of it periodically and wonder if she’s missing a part of the story. Why do we have separate religions, if they’re all chasing after the same basic ineffable truths? (That’s the thing: she seems to be arguing that, if you follow the rituals of each religion, you’ll eventually land on *the same* ineffable truths.) Unless I misunderstand the New Testament, Christians really do believe that they’ve replaced Abraham’s covenant with a new one; Christianity isn’t just Judaism with a new face. Islam really did take over Constantinople and turn the Hagia Sophia from an Orthodox or Latin cathedral into a mosque. I certainly do hope that a message of universal love lies beneath every world religion, but then what have they all been fighting for?

In Armstrong’s eyes, the uglier parts of the various religions are perversions of the one true idea. She regrets Augustine’s doctrine of original sin:

> …Original Sin, one of his less positive contributions to Western theology. He produced an entirely novel exegesis of the second and third chapters of Genesis, which claimed that the sin of Adam had condemned all his descendants to eternal damnation. Despite the salvation wrought by Christ, humanity was still weakened by what Augustine called “concupiscence,” the irrational desire to take pleasure in beings instead of God itself. It was expereinced most acutely in the sexual act, when our reasoning powers are swamped by passion, God is forgotten, and creatures revel shamelessly in one another. … Born in grief and fear, this doctrine has left Western Christians with a difficult legacy that linked sexuality indissolubly with sin and helped to alienate men and women from their humanity.

She gives so little time to ideas like these that you’d almost forget there’s any content to each religion on its own. Instead, she focuses on the act of learning each religion, which universally involves studying alongside a teacher (rabbit, priest, imam, whatever) and performing charitable works. You’d almost forget that many thousands (millions?) of people have died from “perversions” of religion.

Armstrong’s gentle humanity — which wants to find the good in all religion — is endearing and infectious, and her scholarship is breathtaking: [book: The Case For God] covers a vast swath of intellectual history, from the authors of the Lascaux cave paintings up to the new atheists (Dawkins, Dennett, Hitchens). She’s made me want to go back and reread Augustine and Aquinas with an eye to metaphor rather than to factual content. Her description of Aquinas’s [book: Summa] is gripping intellectual history, and I quote it at length below the fold.

I haven’t yet established to my satisfaction whether the use of reason in religion — which Aquinas made most famous — even makes sense, and I’m not sure that Armstrong answers this question. Armstrong’s tool throughout [book: The Case For God] is apophatic theology, the method of defining God by what it is not: God is not a mortal man; God is not just an infinite version of you and me; God is not made of a substance at all; and so forth. One sees in this method something akin to the Zen Buddhist koans: a different state of understanding achieved by coming to grips with paradox.

Around the Scientific Revolution, religion undermined itself by trying to make something scientific of itself. God became something whose existence one could document; “He” eventually became something a lot like a human, only infinitely large and infinitely wise and infinitely patient and so forth. The metaphor fell away, as did the awestruck stance before a fundamentally ineffable thing. When God is understood in a factual way — “He” created the Universe some fixed number of years ago, and He reached down to smite Onan, and so forth — we lose both grandeur and believability. When compared to a scientific standard, *of course* the Bible will collapse; it was never meant to be read that way. By trying to appeal to the scientists, modern Christians have doomed their religion to be laughed at and discarded.

As I also read in Diarmaid MacCulloch’s [book: The Reformation], Armstrong notes that the Catholic Church’s reaction against Galileo — and against the Copernican revolution — was really an unfortunate accident of timing: the Church had been losing to Protestants, and consequently tightened up their grip on dogma. Again, the Church should have no position on cosmology; the Bible can’t be read as a factual map of the Creation.

Then again, of course, a book like the Bible — or even a much shorter document like the Constitution — will be subject to changing interpretations as the years pass. Armstrong sounds like a strange kind of self-negating fundamentalist at points: the Bible’s, and the Torah’s, and the Koran’s meanings must change as each new learner understands it in context, but *it was never meant to be understood in my one disfavored way*. Essentially Armstrong is arguing that apophatic theology is one of the only ways to understand a religious text. She asserts with evidence that every important theologian has approached his or her book apophatically. Still, I’m sure she could have filled another book of the same size with theologians of the opposite stripe.

I’ve only scratched the surface of the evidence that Armstrong has amassed. The best thing I can say about it is that you really owe it to yourself to pick up [book: The Case For God] and devour it like I did. Armstrong’s brilliant writing is going to bring me back to theology to see if I can understand the masters better.

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Some questions about acquired taste — August 25, 2010

Some questions about acquired taste

(__Attention conservation notice__: Wherein I think out loud for about 900 words on the subject of acquired taste, with particular reference to espresso — not because that’s the most important example, but rather because it helps me make things a bit more concrete.)

I’ve had this nagging question in my head for a long, long time: how do you judge what something is “supposed” to taste like when it’s an acquired taste for most everyone?

This isn’t a rhetorical question; it may be reasonable to demand that, say, scotch taste a specific way. But there are a number of tastes that virtually no one enjoys when they’re young; black coffee and wine come to mind immediately. This may be just an American thing; I don’t want to universalize it too much. But childhood food tastes tend to the sweet. I’d hypothesize that sugar is not an acquired taste, but espresso is.

So what I’ve wondered for a while is: who decides what espresso is supposed to taste like? Some possible standards:

* It’s supposed to taste like what the average consumer likes, including those who at present don’t drink espresso. Imagine, for instance, that you gathered people at random off the street and put a number of different espressos in front of them. The best espresso, by this standard, is the one that the most people liked.

The trouble here is obvious: you’re appealing to the average, and that may not be what defines “the best espresso.” The average person may, in Dave Barry’s words, not be able to distinguish between red wine and melted popsicles, but that doesn’t mean that melted popsicles are what wine is supposed to taste like.

* It’s supposed to taste like what those who’ve tasted many espressos say it should taste like. The trouble here is that their perception of what it should taste like may be colored by what the community they’re in says it should taste like. I seem to recall that French-roast coffee was all the rage 10 or 15 years ago; nowadays lightly-roasted coffees seem to be on the upswing. Does this mean that those coffees are objectively “what coffee is supposed to taste like,” or does it just mean that master baristas are driven by fads like everyone else?

* It’s supposed to taste like what those with highly perceptive senses — think Robert Parker, the “man with the million-dollar nose” — say it should taste like. The trouble here is a bit of the last bullet — the Parkers of the world probably spend their time conversing with like-minded folks — but also that it’s not clear how much I have to learn from someone whose palate is that finely honed. Yes, one day I hope to be able to register as much as Parker does when I quaff a fine wine, but in the meantime most of the subtlety is lost on me. Should I be drinking espresso that appeals to people with far different tastes from mine?

* There’s no right answer; it’s supposed to taste like whatever you like drinking. This is a fine standard, and in fact in some ways it’s probably ideal. But it does demand discipline from the drinker: if you’re going to make your own standards, you owe it to yourself to drink many different kinds of espresso (or wine, or scotch, or whatever) and decide which you like best.

All of these, I suspect, could be taken beyond the realm of food and into art or literature or comedy. What makes Andy Kaufman funny? Picasso is harder to get into than Thomas Kinkade; is the latter better than the former? I have less to say about those disciplines, because I know less about them.

In general, I certainly hope that interpersonal comparisons are possible. If they’re not, that makes life more boring; I find it fun to discuss food and literature and whatever, and you probably do too. I doubt you feel as though there’s an impassable wall between you and me that makes it impossible for us to compare foods. We read various critics; sometimes they call our attention to aspects we might not have noticed in books we’ve just read or coffee we’ve just drunk. Then we decide for ourselves whether the standards that they use to judge books or food work for us.

Is that the most we can say about acquired tastes? That there’s no right or wrong taste for espresso or wine or whatnot, but only whether someone else’s standard rings true for you? That doesn’t feel quite right to me, because it’s likely to be driven by fads. Fads are less a measure of what’s good than what’s popular. Yet I don’t want to go to the opposite side, either, and assert that there’s no right answer other than what you yourself enjoy; there are people who know more about a given product than I do, and I owe them some deference.

I decided to write all of this down after reading a piece about American espresso that crystallized a lot of what I’m wondering. The argument that American espresso is a different breed from what Italians like certainly makes a lot of sense to me. Though I’d want to see it confirmed empirically, by putting the same espressos in front of Americans and Italians and seeing whether there’s really as little overlap as Milos would suggest.

One fellow on Twitter is rather more decisive than I am in his feelings about Milos; he says, “This man is a dick with ears.”

A quick note on life expectancies — August 24, 2010

A quick note on life expectancies

The next time you hear someone say that the Social Security retirement age needs to go up because “back when Social Security was started, people weren’t expected to live much past retirement age,” first point out to them that the terminology is confusing: “life expectancy” means “life expectancy at birth.” Life expectancy at birth goes down if you die in the crib. What’s actually important, when setting the retirement age, is your life expectancy at age 65. Since we’ve made big strides on reducing child mortality, life expectancy at birth has gone way up; life expectancy at age 65 has only gone up by a little less than six years across all races and sexes, and has only gone up by a bit less than three years for black men. See the tables (with sources linked) below.

A couple other things to note:

* Suppose we’re in a recession when you’re in your late 60s. You get laid off. How likely do you think it will be that you’ll get re-hired? (Though as a friend mentioned the other night: employers may refuse to hire older folks because they know that their new employees will only be working until they hit 65; an increase in the retirement age might make employers think they can get a few more productive years out of them, thereby making age discrimination less of a problem.)

* There’s a gap in life expectancy by income, which the figures by race and sex don’t necessarily capture. (Though since race and sex affect income — women and black people are paid less — the life-expectancy numbers based only on race and sex may already capture an income effect. What we want is are models that predict life expectancy as a function of race, sex, and income, holding each constant while the other varies.)

I’ve had a book in my queue for a while, namely [book: Working Longer: The Solution to the Retirement Income Challenge], which seems to address these issues. I’ve had a visceral resistance to reading it — namely that if someone suggests I work later in life, I might suggest in response that they perform an anatomical sexual impossibility. But I’ll overcome that resistance and read it for you, out of affection.

Life expectancies, 1939-1941:
All White men White women Black men Black women
At birth: 63.62 62.81 67.29 52.26 55.56
At age 65: 77.80 77.07 78.56 77.21 78.93
Source
Life expectancies, 2006:
All White men White women Black men Black women
At birth: 77.7 75.7 80.6 69.7 76.5
At age 65: 83.5 83.1 84.8 80.1 83.6
Source
How Google’s PageRank algorithm works — August 23, 2010

How Google’s PageRank algorithm works

There was recently a little tempest in a teapot on Twitter about some measure of how influential a Twitterer you are, which got me thinking about how silly a lot of these measures are. They remind me a lot of early baseball statistics: read one of the early books in the sabermetrics genre, like [book: The Hidden Game Of Baseball], and you’ll find a lot of dudes with limited statistical training taking a little of x, and a little of y, adding it together, and finding that — hey, this looks like a good measure of something; let’s use it! There are worse ways to develop a measure of something, but there are also better ways. Subsequent sabermetricians developed better ways, using rigorous statistics.

These amateur Twitter ranks made me think of Google’s PageRank algorithm, which was based on years of work trying to measure influence in academic journals. The Google problem and the journal problem are quite similar: if a given journal, or a given journal article, have a lot of inbound “links” (that is, citations from other journals), that’s good — but only if the linking journals are themselves highly linked. A bunch of citations from garbage journals, or a bunch of inbound web links from spam sites, shouldn’t contribute anything to your journal’s or your website’s rank.

The math behind the basic PageRank algorithm is simple. Imagine that you’re an infinitely patient web surfer who jumps randomly from page to page: you start on some page, click on every link on that page, and do the same on every subsequent page. If you click on 10,000 links, and 500 of them go to CNN.com, then you’ve spent 5% of your time on CNN. If 1,000 of those links go to NYTimes.com, you’ve spent 10% of your time on the [newspaper: Times]. The PageRank for a given site is the fraction of time that our hypothetical random web surfer spends, in the long term, on that site.

Specifically, imagine a big table listing the probability that one site links
to another:

CNN NYTimes HuffingtonPost TalkingPointsMemo
CNN 0.75 0 0 0.25
NYT 0 0.75 0.05 0.20
HuffPo 0.35 0.40 0.20 0.05
TPM 0.20 0.30 0.10 0.40

(In Google’s practice, this would be a square table with as many rows and as many columns as there are pages on the Internet. So imagine a table with billions of rows and as many columns.)

The probability in each cell is the probability that the domain in the same row links to the domain in the same column; so for instance,
the probability that CNN links to Talking Points Memo is 0.25; it doesn’t link at all to the [newspaper: Times] or to the Huffington Post.
(These are purely made-up numbers.)

Imagine, again, that we’re a random web-surfer. We start at the [newspaper: Times]’s website, click somewhere, then click another link at random from where we’ve landed. So now we’re two clicks away from wherever we started. What’s the probability that we’d end up at Huffington Post after two clicks? Turns out that we can answer the question if we turn the table above into a mathematical object called a matrix. The matrix version of the table above looks like

[ [0.75 0 0 0.25] [0 0.75 0.05 0.2] [0.35 0.4 0.2 0.05] [0.2 0.3 0.1 0.4]  ]

This is called a “transition-probability matrix.” Since every row sums to one — because every page links to some other page, even if the page it links to is itself — it’s also called a “stochastic matrix.” It turns out — via the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation — that the probability of getting from one of those pages to another within two clicks is the square of the transition-probability matrix. Squaring such an odd-looking beast may seem weird, but it’s a well-defined operation called matrix multiplication. The square of that matrix looks like so:

The square of the matrix shown above

which says that the probability of getting from Talking Points Memo to Huffington Post in two clicks is 0.075. Continue this process through many clicks and you’ll eventually approach what’s called the “stationary distribution” — the long-term probabilities of ending up in any given state, independently of where you started out. In this particular case, the stationary probabilities are

* CNN: about 0.285
* The Times: 0.4
* HuffPo: about 0.057
* TPM: about 0.257

The [newspaper: Times], then, would have the highest PageRank, followed by CNN, TPM, and HuffPo. Again, the interpretation of the PageRank is very simple: the long-term fraction of time that a random [1] web-surfer would spend on your page.

Of course Google needs to modify this basic approach somewhat. One assumes that there’s a lot of “secret sauce” baked into the actual PageRank algorithm — as opposed to this bare skeleton — that allows Google to respond to spammers more effectively.

Regardless, I suspect a Markov-chain approach like PageRank would apply with few modifications to Twitter. Your Twitter rank would go up the more retweets (someone on Twitter essentially forwarding your tweet on to his or her followers) or mentions (someone including your Twitter handle in his or her tweet) you get, but only if the people retweeting or mentioning you were themselves highly ranked. The essential metric would be the fraction of time that a random Twitter surfer would spend reading your tweets.

One might argue that having a lot of followers should increase your Twitter rank. This is debatable: are your followers actually valuable if they’re not mentioning you or voting for your tweets by retweeting them? I could see basing the Twitter rank on followers rather than tweets, in which case the interpretation would be “the fraction of time a random Twitter surfer, jumping from Twitter handle to Twitter handle, would spend on your account.” But that seems less promising than basing it on tweets.

In any case, the point is that PageRank has a simple interpretation based on probabilities. This is in contrast to all the gimmicky Twitter-ranking sites, whose point is to drive traffic to one site or another. It’s like we’re reinventing Google. Right now we’re at the Alta Vista of Twitter: the current competitors are less focused on searching and ranking, more focused on their “portal,” and ultimately less professional than what Google came up with by using actual math.

For much, much more on the mathematical details of PageRank, see Langville and Meyer’s [book: Google’s PageRank and Beyond: The Science of Search Engine Rankings]. It’s a gem.

[1] — Specifically, someone surfing according to a Markov chain. This is a very simple way of modeling a sort of random process that has “no memory”: if you tell me the first, second, third, fourth, and fifth pages you clicked on, and ask me to guess what your sixth page will be, I can throw out all the information you gave me apart from the fifth page. Earlier states, that is, don’t matter in prediction of the future; only the most recent state matters.

Albert O. Hirschman, Exit, Voice, and Loyalty: Responses to Decline in Firms, Organizations, and States —

Albert O. Hirschman, Exit, Voice, and Loyalty: Responses to Decline in Firms, Organizations, and States

There is basically nothing on this cover but some 70s-style text: author, title, subtitle
There should be a category on bookstore shelves for “little, dense, incisive, ingenious books.” [book: Exit, Voice, And Loyalty] would be one; Herbert Simon’s [book: The Sciences of the Artificial] would be right next to it.

Hirschman here examines three methods for addressing an organization’s deterioration: “exit,” the option of leaving the organization, not buying its products anymore, etc.; “voice,” the option of sticking with the organization and protesting in the hopes of improving it; and “loyalty,” which is really more a property that encourages you to stay with the organization longer (thereby probably delaying exit and giving voice more of a chance). Normally we think of exit and voice as separate powers: exit is what you use in a market economy, while voice is what you use when dealing with a government (which is typically hard or even impossible to exit). Hirschman asks a simple question: how do these powers interact?

The interaction turns out to be fascinating. Consider parents dissatisfied with the performance of their children’s public school. The parents who are most focused on school quality are likely to leave first and put their kids in private schools, leaving behind only the less quality-focused parents who are less likely to speak up. So the exit option (parents abandoning the school) diminishes the use of the voice option (speaking up). This is likely to accelerate the school’s decline.

Or consider a product (maybe a brand of automobile is a canonical example here) whose quality has diminished over time. Again, exit is likely to be used before voice: the customers most concerned about quality will bail first. If too many customers bail too fast, the company won’t have enough time to fix the product before it’s gone out of business. Whereas if too many customers don’t bail out quickly enough, the company will never learn that its products need to improve. So one can postulate a certain optimal level of quality-sensitivity in customers: not too high to kill the company before it fixes things, but not so low that the company stagnates. Modeling this formally would naturally use an analogue of price elasticity; whereas price elasticity measures the percentage decrease in sales that results from small percentage increase in price, quality elasticity measures the percentage change in sales for a small percentage change in quality.

Indeed, one of the neat little accomplishments in this neat little book is that it uses formal economic models to study the interaction of exit, voice, and loyalty even when the context is, say, the decline of a government rather than that of a company. The indifference curves are mostly confined to appendices, and Hirschman’s writing is clear enough that normally you can get the gist just as easily — if less rigorously — from his words as from his charts.

A government would be a classic case where exit is basically unused: yes, you could leave the United States in protest — and some large fraction of our countrymen promise to move to Canada at every presidential election — but would you? So the main option available to you in a democracy is voice. Similarly, you’re likely to raise your voice in a political party before you’d exit it, particularly if the alternative party is far away from you ideologically.

Here Hirschman consults a famous model by Harold Hotelling, metaphorically applied to ice-cream stands lined up along a beach. Imagine that beachgoers are distributed uniformly along the beach, and two ice-cream stands are trying to decide where to place themselves to capture the most customers. Imagine that the ice-cream stands initially start on opposite ends of the beach, but are free to relocate. The leftmost ice-cream stand realizes that if it moves a little bit toward the center, it can continue to pick up customers to its left (because those customers are still closer to the leftmost ice-cream stand than to the rightmost) while picking up those customers that lie less than halfway between the leftmost and rightmost stands. The rightmost stand realizes, similarly, that it can move to the center and continue picking up those customers to its right while picking up a few more in the middle. This process continues until both ice-cream stands are almost exactly at the middle, separated by a tiny sliver of distance.

Replacing the beach with some measure of political ideology, the conclusion is that it’s always in political parties’ interests to move to the center. There are initial obvious reasons why the analogy isn’t quite right. It’s not obvious that voters are uniformly distributed across the ideological spectrum, for one. For another, the Hotelling model assumes that customers don’t care about the cost of walking down the beach: they’ll pick the nearest stand, regardless of how far they have to walk to get there. In a political context, this would imply that voters don’t especially care which beliefs their parties hold; they just want the party to be “closer to me than the other party is.” Which isn’t obvious: perhaps people on the right or left ends of the political spectrum really want parties on the extremes, and will opt out of party politics altogether if they’re forced to pick among centrist alternatives.

Hirschman ends up rejecting the Hotelling model as it applies to political parties, for the reasons laid out above (more to the point: because it fails to work empirically). Here he’s rejecting what is apparently known as Hotelling’s Law, not to mention the median-voter theorem.

For such a small book and so few atoms (three, in fact: exit, voice, and loyalty), Hirschman’s is remarkably dense with interesting ideas. Highly recommended.

Speaking of Lukas’s Common Ground — August 22, 2010

Speaking of Lukas’s Common Ground

(…as we were), it helped me realize another thing that’s really annoying about Ann Patchett’s novel [book: Run]: it’s ripped directly from [book: Common Ground], only it loses all of the latter’s majesty and honesty toward its characters, and replaces them with cheap sentimentality. One of the families that Lukas follows in [book: Common Ground], for instance, ends up suffering a crime so horrifying that thinking about it has denied me sleep on a few occasions; Lukas depicts the crime matter-of-factly, because his whole project is to turn an honest eye on race and on cities. A ghastly crime simply wouldn’t fit within Patchett’s world; it’s not treacly enough for her, and [book: Run] is trying so hard to Say Something that it avoids being honest when it should.

I’d invite you to read [book: Common Ground] and then [book: Run], and tell me that Patchett didn’t ape the former in writing the latter. It would be one thing if she’d aped it with any respect or skill; as it is, she colorized it and replaced the soundtrack with carnival music.

J. Anthony Lukas, Common Ground: A Turbulent Decade in the Lives of Three American Families —

J. Anthony Lukas, Common Ground: A Turbulent Decade in the Lives of Three American Families

Cover of 'Common Ground': a school bus with a big squadron of police standing in front of it
I’ve been horribly remiss in not writing a review of Lukas’s monumental [book: Common Ground: A Turbulent Decade in the Lives of Three American Families]. To say that it’s a book about Boston’s 1970s-era busing crisis is to be, at some level, accurate, but to miss the immense, teeming landscape that Lukas has painted. [book: Common Ground] is nothing less than a history of race in the United States. It is a landmark. It is among the two or three nonfiction books that you really must read, along with Caro’s [book: Power Broker] and Rhodes’s [book: Making of the Atomic Bomb].

[book: Common Ground] views race through three lenses: the Divers, white pioneers into Boston’s South End; the Twymons, black and living in the South End projects; and the white Irish McGoffs of Charlestown. The Divers are what you might call yuppies, though it is to Lukas’s extreme credit that he would never let a character be reduced to a label. The Divers, in any case, are some of the brave white folks who ventured into the South End when it was no place for white people, to try to build a neighborhood and a community. The Twymons — mother and children — are not destined for a happy life in the projects. The McGoffs are right in the thick of — and active participants in — the most virulent Charlestown racism.

Lukas is sympathetic toward his characters, and has the gift of telling their stories exactly as they themselves would tell them. And like [book: Love in the Time of Cholera], Lukas takes the time, at every moment when it’s necessary, to step back and explain a bit of history if it’s important to his characters. Time and again we pause from the present moment to learn about someone’s poor Irish ancestors, or someone’s slave grandparents. The effect is that we’re not just reading three stories; we’re reading a web of interconnections. Boston, which so often gets tamed into an abbreviated “There was the Boston Tea Party … and then MIT came! … And now we have software. … Let’s walk the Freedom Trail!”, gets rightfully recast as the “blooming, buzzing confusion” that it really is.

Along the way, we meet many, many people. Probably the two strongest characters are Louise Day Hicks, member of the Boston School Committee, daughter of an iconic judge, and symbol of virulent anti-busing racism; and Arthur Garrity, the judge who wrote the momentous decision mandating busing for Boston’s schools. Hicks comes across looking opportunistic, brilliant, and willing to attach herself to the most despicable ideas if they’d advance her career. Garrity stands aloof from the havoc that he arguably created, calmly resisting all efforts to avoid busing. These two wildly different people are beacons in the storm.

A blurb on [book: Common Ground]’s cover by Studs Terkel, that master of ground-level history, says that it tells a truth about “all large American cities.” That is very true, but like most any attempt to describe [book: Common Ground], this vastly understates the scope of its accomplishment. [book: Common Ground] tells the story of race in America as only a book about American cities can. Cities are the crucible where all of America’s problems get worked out — or not. If the problems get solved, they get solved here; if they fail, they fail here. Lukas documents the failure of American racial integration, and the arguably noble experiment that led to that failure.

I can’t emphasize enough, though, that one of the things that makes [book: Common Ground] so powerful is that, while Lukas may have set his sights on the stars, he knew that the only way to reach them was to start down in the dirt. At no point in [book: Common Ground] do you feel as though Lukas is trying to Make A Point. He probably *is* trying to do so, but he’s too disciplined a writer to give in to cheap moralizing or easy grandiosity. What’s grandiose in [book: Common Ground] are its people — each of them down in the shit with everyone else, surviving and maybe thriving as well as they possibly can. If their survival or their failure has any larger meaning, Lukas lets the characters and their history bring out that meaning.

American history has been, in large part, the history of race, the history of America’s original sin, and the history of its attempts to expiate that sin. In [book: Common Ground], Lukas has condensed this history into the interrelated lives of a few Bostonians. In 200 years, [book: Common Ground] will be on the shelf along with a select few other books that mapped out where America came from and where it tried to go.